Sequence of Returns Risk Visualizer

Two retirees. Same returns. Same average. Completely different outcomes.

Both portfolios use the exact same set of randomly generated annual returns — and therefore the exact same average. The only difference is order: one retiree gets the three best years first, the other gets the three worst years first. The remaining years are the same returns, randomly distributed. See what timing alone can do.

Portfolio inputs

Starting portfolio value

Average annual return

Projection years

Annual withdrawal

Inflation adjustment

Portfolio balance over time

Good start — 3 best years first Bad start — 3 worst years first

Year-by-year comparison Italicized rows = the critical first 3 years

Year	Return (Good start)	Balance (Good start)	Return (Bad start)	Balance (Bad start)	Withdrawal

This tool is for educational and illustrative purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Both scenarios use the identical set of randomly generated annual returns — the same average return and the same volatility — just in a different order. The first 3 years are the three highest (good start) or three lowest (bad start) from that set; the remaining years are randomized identically for both portfolios. Returns are generated using a normal distribution with a fixed standard deviation of 15%. Actual market returns are not normally distributed and past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making retirement decisions.